Productivity and the pandemic: short-term disruptions and long-term implications

Abstract This paper analyses quarterly estimates of productivity growth at industry level for three advanced economies, France, the UK and US, 2020. We use detailed industry-level data to distinguish reallocations working hours between industries from pure within-industry gains or losses. find that all countries showed positive rates aggregate output per hour in 2020 over 2019. However, after removing effects reallocation low high industries, only US still performed positively terms growth. In contrast, two European economies negative While above-average digital-intensive outperformed below-average ones both France UK, higher groups compared countries. Industries with medium-intensive levels shares employees home prior pandemic made larger than highest pre-pandemic work-from-home shares. Overall, taking into account collapse hospitality culture sector during 2020, shows no clear deviation slowing trend. Future trends will depend on whether favourable (or smaller losses) digital intensity outweigh pandemic, particular scarring labour markets business dynamics.